It was an interesting read, but it's a bit too us-centric.

Statements like "Carrier influence means you can't make a successful smartphone platform without having strong support from them." are made by people from the USA by looking what's happening to the telecomm world around them, not around the world.

It's said from someone who never heard of Oppo (http://en.oppo.com/ or bq (http://www.bqreaders.com).

"With the 6 month cycles of today's marketplace that means you have to access to the best components in the world (Samsung), or have such control of your stack that you can optimize your software to make do with lesser hardware. Preferably both."

In Portugal, people don't have the S4. People have the Samsung piece-of-crap 320x480 singlecore with 512mb of ram and if they're lucky Android 4.0. So if you can give them something better, they will love it. Especially because Android on low-end devices is just sad.

"Your product has become a commodity unless you can differentiate with your user experience. That requires the telling potential customers about your awesome software, which requires a ton of cash. Samsung spends hundreds of millions each quarter on Galaxy S ads."

If you have a good product, it speaks for itself. Samsung's low-end devices are negative marketing for them, in my opinion.

It's telling that even Google is looking back at 512mb devices and optimizing for them with Android 4.4.

Most people I know DO have smartphones. But they don't use that many apps. So I think the right smartphone with the right message can make inroads.

"So does this mean we should give up? No. Innovation should continue, but we have to be realistic. No new entrant has any chance of getting more than one percent of the global market. That could still be a success, however, depending on how you define success. If success is being profitable with a few million units, then you can be a success. "

And finally, I still remember when people said the same thing about Linux. And it's everywhere now. Ironically, just the desktop remains as the sole bastion not conquered and owned by Linux.